“Stuff your eyes with wonder, live as if you’d drop
dead in ten seconds. See the world. It’s more fantastic than any dream
made or paid for in factories.” –Ray Bradbury
It wasn’t all that long ago — back when I was a boy — that the only
planets we knew of were the ones in our own Solar System. The rocky
planets, our four gas giants, and the moons, asteroids, comets, and
kuiper belt objects (which was only Pluto and Charon at the time) were
all that we knew of.
Image credit: NASA's Solar System Exploration, http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/index.cfm.
But these were just the worlds around our Sun, which houses
(according to current definition) eight planets. Our Sun is just one of
an estimated two-to-four hundred billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy,
and looking up towards the night sky, one can’t help but wonder how many
of those stars have planets of their own, and what those worlds are
like.
Image credit: Free Roaming Photography, by Mike Cavaroc.
There are a vast variety of stars out there in our galaxy. Our Sun is
just one example — a G-class star — of seven different main types.
Image credit: Wikipedia user Kieff; annotations by me.
We may think of our Sun as being typical and on the relatively dim
side, since a disproportionate number of stars visible to our eyes in
the night sky are O, B, and A-class stars. But in reality, the Sun is
more massive and intrinsically brighter
than 95% of stars in our galaxy. The red dwarf stars — M-class stars — which are no more than 40% the mass of our Sun, make up
3 out of every 4 stars that are out there.
What’s more than that, our Sun exists in isolation; it is not
gravitationally bound to any other stars. But that is not necessarily
how stars exist in the galaxy, either.
Image credit: VISTA infrared survey, ESO / J. Borissova.
Stars can be clustered together in twos (binary stars), threes
(trinaries), or groups/clusters containing anywhere from hundreds to
many hundreds of thousands of stars.
My point is this: if you want to
accurately estimate how
many planets there are in our galaxy, you can’t just take the number of
planets we find around our star and multiply it by the number of stars
in our galaxy. That’s a naïve estimate that we’d make in the absence of
evidence. But just for fun, that’d give us somewhere around
two-to-three trillion planets in
our galaxy. And as we know from our own Solar System, there’s a great
variety of what the surfaces of those planets could look like.
Image composite: credit Mike Malaska. For individual image credits, see lower left.
But over the past two decades, we’ve been looking. We’ve been looking
with a few different methods, in fact, and the two most prolific are
the “stellar wobble” method, where you can infer the mass-and-radius of a
planet (or set of planets) around a star by observing how it “wobbles”
gravitationally over long periods of time:
Image credit: European Southern Observatory.
And the transit method, where the light coming from a distant star is
partially blocked by the disk of a planet in its solar system passing
in front of it.
Image credit: ESA / NASA's Solar And Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), 2006.
It’s important to recognize, when we do this, that we
will not see the vast majority of planets that are out there. Take
NASA’s Kepler Mission, for instance, which has
discovered hundreds (if not
thousands)
of planets by looking at a field-of-view containing around 100,000
stars. But that does not mean that there are only a few
planets-per-hundred-stars. Consider the following: if Kepler were
looking at our Solar System, and our Solar System was oriented
randomly with
respect to our perspective, these are the odds that the alignment would
be good enough to observe a transit of our star by one of our planets.
Planet |
Degree Range (out of 180) |
% chance of good alignment |
Mercury |
1.37 degrees |
0.76% chance |
Venus |
0.738 degrees |
0.41% chance |
Earth |
0.533 degrees |
0.30% chance |
Mars |
0.320 degrees |
0.18% chance |
Jupiter |
0.101 degrees |
0.056% chance |
Saturn |
0.0556 degrees |
0.031% chance |
Uranus |
0.0277 degrees |
0.015% chance |
Neptune |
0.0177 degrees |
0.0098% chance |
Now you may think those are not-so-good odds, but you don’t even know the half of it. Mercury and Mars are too small,
meaning they don’t block enough of the Sun’s light, to be detectable
with Kepler, and the four outer planets, despite their large sizes, take
too long to orbit for Kepler to observe more than one transit, a
necessity for a planetary candidate.
So this means that if Kepler were looking at 100,000 stars identical
to our own, it would have found 410 stars with a total of 700 planets
around them.
Illustration credit: NASA / Jason Rowe, Kepler Mission.
But
as of today, Kepler has found
over 11,000 stars with at least one planetary candidate, and over
18,000 potential planets around those stars, with periods ranging from 12 hours up to 525 days. In other words, there are:
- a huge variety of planetary systems out there, most of which are very different from our own,
- orbiting a wide variety of stars, including binary and trinary systems,
- and we are only seeing the ones that are large enough, orbiting their stars close enough, that also have unlikely, fortuitous alignments with respect to our line-of-sight.
You may have read this week that there are
at least 100-to-200 billion planets in our Milky Way, and that’s true, but that’s not an estimate;
that’s a lower limit.
If you instead were to make an estimate, you’d get a number that’s at
least one (and more like two, if you’re willing to make inferences about
outer planets) orders of magnitude higher: closer to
ten trillion planets in our galaxy, alone!
Image credit: ESO / M. Kornmesser.
In other words, based on what we’ve seen so far,
most stars
are likely to have planets, and based on what we’ve seen in the inner
solar systems of the ones that do, a large fraction of them are likely
to have
more rocky planets in their inner solar systems than even our own has, to say nothing of the outer solar system!
Image credit: J. Pinfield / RoPACS network / University of Hertfordshire.
This doesn’t even include orphan planets (without a parent star),
which we know exist,
even if we don’t know their numbers yet. Over time, we’ll continue to
learn more and refine our estimates, but right now, there are at
least about as many planets as there are stars in our galaxy, and quite
possibly many, many more than even eight times that number.
Our solar system may turn out to be average,
slightly above average, or somewhat below average; we’re still not sure. But regardless of which way it goes, we’re talking about
trillions of planets in our galaxy alone. And remember,
our galaxy isn’t alone in the Universe.
Image
credit: NASA, ESA, G. Illingworth, D. Magee, and P. Oesch (University
of California, Santa Cruz), R. Bouwens (Leiden University), and the
HUDF09 Team.
With at least 200 billion galaxies out there (and
possibly even more), we’re very likely talking about a Universe filled with
around 1024 planets, or, for those of you who like it written out, around
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets in our observable Universe.
That number’s only going to get more accurate, but I’m tired of
people giving the lowball-estimate when it’s eminently likely that there
are so many more. Let’s keep looking, for not just planets, but for
water, oxygen, and signs of life. With all of those chances, we’re bound
to get lucky if we persevere and look hard enough!